Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Wednesday that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue "as long as it takes" and described the operation as "growing and going global," according to CBS News and ABC News. Thirty-four ships have now been turned back from Iranian ports, up from 27 earlier in the week.

The same day, CNN reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is headed to Pakistan, raising the prospect of a new round of talks this weekend. The Trump administration is sending Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to participate, according to CNN. Vice President Vance, who led the first round, is not returning for this session.

Oil rose above $105 per barrel in early trading Thursday as the conflicting signals, expanding blockade alongside diplomatic movement, left markets unable to price in a resolution.

The Expanding Blockade

Hegseth's description of a "global" blockade signals that the Navy is no longer limiting interdiction to the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters. The military said it has boarded another tanker involved in smuggling Iranian oil, ABC News reported. A U.S.-sanctioned supertanker passed through the strait despite the blockade, according to Iran's semiofficial Tasnim news agency, suggesting enforcement gaps that the Pentagon is working to close.

The expansion raises operational questions. The U.S. Navy is large but not infinite. Blockading Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf requires a concentrated naval presence. Expanding that to interdict Iranian-linked vessels globally means deploying assets across the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and potentially the Mediterranean. Every ship assigned to blockade duty is a ship not available for other missions, including deterrence in the Western Pacific.

The Lebanon Extension

President Trump announced Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks, NBC News reported. The Israel-Lebanon truce is separate from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire but connected to it. Iran has insisted throughout the negotiations that an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon is a precondition for any comprehensive deal.

The three-week extension is significant because it removes one of the tripwires that nearly collapsed the first ceasefire. When Israel launched its deadliest strikes on Lebanon hours after the U.S.-Iran truce took effect on April 8, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and accused the United States of bad faith. A Lebanon ceasefire that holds reduces the risk of a similar escalation cycle.

The Weekend Talks

The potential resumption of talks in Islamabad changes the diplomatic picture. Iran's willingness to send Araghchi suggests that Tehran's position has evolved from refusal to engage (its stance two weeks ago, when it cited the blockade as an obstacle) to conditional engagement.

What changed is unclear. The blockade may be working as intended: economic pressure forcing Iran back to the table. Or Tehran may have concluded that the blockade will continue regardless and that negotiations are the only way to get it lifted. Either interpretation supports the administration's coercive diplomacy strategy.

The delegation change matters. Witkoff and Kushner without Vance is a negotiating team, not a principals-level delegation. This suggests the weekend session is exploratory rather than conclusive. Both sides may be feeling for common ground before committing senior political figures to a formal round.

Iran's forensics chief told state media that nearly 3,400 people have been killed since U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28. The war is 55 days old. The ceasefire has held on land for over two weeks. The blockade is tightening at sea. And the path to ending the conflict runs through Islamabad this weekend, if both sides choose to walk it.