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Analysis

Long-form deep dives and explainers on complex policy topics.

What the Iran War Has Taught About American Industrial Capacity

Six weeks of high-intensity air combat against a regional adversary consumed years of American precision munitions production, and three weeks of subsequent blockade enforcement have begun eating into Standard Missile inventories that the Pacific theater is supposed to draw from in any future conflict with China. The Iran war has converted a long-running theoretical concern about American defense industrial capacity into an operational demonstration that the country cannot fight a longer or larger conflict on the inventory it currently possesses, with implications that extend well beyond the immediate Iranian theater.

May 3, 2026 · 11 min read

The Islamabad Talks Will Reveal Whether America Has a Theory of Peace

Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner fly to Pakistan on Saturday to negotiate with Iran. The military campaign destroyed Iran's nuclear program and shattered its military. Whether the Trump administration can convert that leverage into a durable settlement is the test that begins in Islamabad.

April 8, 2026 · 5 min read